2025 Trend Forecast: Will Trump’s Tariffs Tamp Down Growth?
At the start of what is sure to be another eventful year in CPG, BevNET & Nosh reached out to individuals from across the industry to express their thoughts: what’s making them optimistic about the future, what’s keeping them up at night, and how they plan on tackling (or avoiding) some of the biggest challenges for 2025. In some cases, responses have been edited for clarity and space.
See other articles from our 2025 Trend Forecast series:
We’re still a few days from the start of a second Trump administration, but the pearl-clutching and hand-wringing over the President-elect’s promise of punitive tariffs on imports, even from steadfast trading partners, has been going on for weeks. The incoming President has threatened to use executive orders to slap a 25% tariff on all imported goods from Mexico and Canada – a move with the potential to impact everything from bread and coffee to aluminum – and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods entering the U.S.
But considering Trump’s freewheeling management style, pundits are still debating whether or not the proposed levies are a carrot to negotiate new trade deals, as happened during Trump’s first term, or a real stick to be used in aggressive defense of domestic producers. That lingering uncertainty is permeating CPG, reflecting a mix of stepped-up preparations with continued business-as-usual – with some existential dread sprinkled in, too.
Do you anticipate your company will be impacted by proposed tariffs on imported goods? Have you started planning for such an event?
The price of some of our materials and ingredients will likely be affected as a chunk of them come from outside the country. I’ve reached out to suppliers over the past few weeks and it appears everyone is in a holding pattern.” – Yael Linker, Senior Operations Manager, Hillside Beverage Packaging
“I believe that while many companies will be impacted due to the haphazard rhetoric and unclear policy implementation, many more will use the tariffs as a means to justify raising prices above the rate of inflation. The tariffs themselves will be very disruptive across the board if they impact Chinese and Mexican goods. Consumers will reward companies that do everything they can to hold the line on pricing; think of it as politicized demand elasticity. Mass deportations of immigrant workers will actually be much more disruptive, as well as painful to their communities and consumers. The industry is in for a big reckoning when so much low cost labor is removed from supply chains.” – Errol Schweizer, Grocery Retail and CPG Strategist, Author of “The Checkout”
“With my client base centrally focused within the emerging and intersecting CPG categories of functional foods/beverages and nutritional supplements, potential tariffs – especially those directed towards China – are concerning due to our reliance on importing popular functional ingredients. While there will certainly be short-term mitigation efforts, many ingredients have no alternative domestic source, and these CPG categories will most likely see some level of cost inflation.” – Joshua Schall, J. Schall Consulting
“At the headline level, it’s hard to think that the looming specter of tariffs won’t drive imminent and increased need for supply chain flexibility, as if the tariffs don’t create outright supply shortages; they’ll at least drive costs up to levels that might not be fully recoverable further downstream, particularly from consumers already greatly weary of price increases.” – Glenn Pappalardo, Co-Founder, Integral CPG
“I think you will see brands developing alternative sourcing strategies to hedge for potential tariffs, but in the end I think it’s a lot of negotiation and the effects will be minimal.” – Anonymous Investor
“If our clients’ costs increase significantly – almost unthinkable after the past two years – we will likely feel the impact of them reducing plans for innovation.” – Barb Stuckey, Chief Innovation & Marketing Officer, Mattson
“I initially believed the proposed tariffs would not affect my business due to minimal imports. However, I soon realized the broader implications. Lock in your warehouse and transportation costs now if you can since the bigger companies are buying now to avoid tariff implications and it has a ripple effect on all of us. Try to negotiate goods for the 2025 year now and get ahead of the curve.” – Laurel Orley, co-founder and CEO, Daily Crunch
“We import everything we sell at Pitaya Foods but I think the tariff fear is overblown. I believe the tariffs will be directed more towards specific industries (i.e. Tech & Auto) and not towards food.” – Chuck Casano, CEO and founder Pitaya Foods & HiTouch Distribution
“Yes, tariffs will increase costs for key production inputs, and we are prepared to pass those along as necessary to protect our margins and business interests.” – John Foraker, co-founder and CEO, Once Upon a Farm
“With the working capital crunch and lack of investment in emerging brands over the last 18 months, international brands have been a major source of innovation and have increased their desire to grow in the U.S. Depending on which countries are impacted by how much, it definitely affects our client base. Maybe that starts to swing back in favor of the domestic middle market and emerging brands, even though tariffs will still impact their ingredient costs in most cases.” – Steve Gaither, EVP of Growth and Strategy, 1o8 Agency
