2025 Trend Forecast: Is Retail Consolidation Reeling?

At the start of what is sure to be another eventful year in CPG, BevNET & Nosh reached out to individuals from across the industry to express their thoughts: what’s making them optimistic about the future, what’s keeping them up at night, and how they plan on tackling (or avoiding) some of the biggest challenges for 2025. In some cases, responses have been edited for clarity and space.

See other articles from our 2025 Trend Forecast series:

• Is CPG Entering the Ozempic Era?
• Will Trump’s Promised Tariffs Tamp Down Growth?
• Is Grocery Inflation Here to Stay?

Across nearly all channels, the retail landscape in 2024 was a rollercoaster – from the fall of next-gen concepts like Foxtrot and Boisson to the demise of the much-anticipated, and even more heavily challenged, proposed grocery mega-merger between Kroger and Albertsons. In the year ahead everyone from regional and independents to leaders like Walmart, Costco and Amazon will be working to remain competitive in the market known for its razor-thin margins – whether on their own or through M&A.

Do you anticipate further consolidation in retail? If so, how are you planning for such an event?

“Although the Kroger/Albertsons merger was denied amid heightened antitrust scrutiny, I anticipate continued retail sector consolidation, particularly among regional players. To address this, we’re continuing to focus on our differentiation as a mission-driven retailer dedicated to making healthy living easy and affordable through our hyper-curated catalog and unique points of differentiation.” – Thuy Nguyen, Category Manager, Thrive Market.

“With the current retailers we are in, we don’t see any further consolidation or that being a concern for us right now. With increased competition and ecommerce growth there is a shift with how consumers are purchasing their groceries and retailers are going to have to continue to shift their offerings with these consumer behaviors.” – Laurel Orley, Co-founder and CEO, Daily Crunch.

“The only future seems to be experiential retail. Brands – and ‘houses of brands’ that can give buyers an experience on any sensory level will come out ahead, regardless of price discrepancy. Focusing on who your customer is will be more important than ever. As we focus less on overconsumption, giving an experience is crucial. Human connection will be more rare, potentially more valuable.” – Lonica Kufner, Founder, Clean Label Consulting

“We’re expecting to see more consolidation as major retailers focus on efficiency and streamlining operations. We’re staying ahead by backing brands that are nimble and able to pivot quickly. We’re helping our portfolio companies strengthen their omnichannel presence — whether that’s growing ecommerce, building direct-to-consumer relationships, or partnering with emerging retailers — so they aren’t overly dependent on any one channel or retailer. – Genevieve Gilbreath, Managing Partner, Springdale Ventures

“After what looks like the demise of the Albertsons/Kroger merger by the Feds, I think the appetite may be waning. Which may be good for brands as the money grab by retailers and distributors have strangled the emerging and lower middle market brands.” – Steve Gaither, EVP of Growth and Strategy, 1o8 Agency

“Yes, in the aftermath of the failed Kroger/Albertsons merger, I expect that we’ll see a number of smaller scale acquisitions with national retailers acquiring smaller regional chains.” – Peter Gialantzis, Chief Merchandising Officer, Pod Foods

“I believe the FTC’s successful halting of the Kroger Albertsons merger means retailers really need to get their ducks in a row regarding large scale M&A. The FTC Robinson-Patman lawsuit against Southern Glazers for price discrimination may have major repercussions in the grocery wholesale sector, so keep an eye on that.” – Errol Schweizer, Grocery Retail and CPG Strategist, Author of “The Checkout”

The food, beverage, and consumer packaged goods landscape is primed for consolidation in 2025, driven by mounting pressures on both retailers and manufacturers. Rising operational costs, expensive digital transformation requirements, and supply chain complexities are squeezing margins for smaller players, while the growing dominance of retail giants are reshaping power dynamics. The demand for seamless omnichannel experiences and sophisticated data analytics capabilities requires substantial capital investment that mid-sized companies struggle to fund independently.” – Rachel Hirsch, Managing Partner, Wellness Growth Ventures

“Brands can get ahead of this by cutting underperforming flavors and products before a retailer does it for you… I think we might see a grocery freeze for new-to-their-store products similar to what happened in 2020-2021 when essential goods took priority on the shelf. If that happens, it will be even more important for indie brands to collaborate to share audiences and costs of ads/campaigns online to drive acquisition.” – Amrit Richmond, Founder of Indie CPG

“Possibly, but likely less, given the result of the proposed Kroger/Albertsons merger and antitrust pressures. Over time, I foresee less consolidation of similar footprint/geography and more acquisition to gain access to different consumer segments, channels, or business models. Think Amazon and Whole Foods.” – Rifle Hughes, Co-founder, Integral CPG, Inc.